A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
