Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
